By Sharon Kimathi, Energy and ESG Editor, Reuters Digital |
Hello! Today’s newsletter gazes into a crystal ball of climate predictions according to risk analysts and insurers.
Risk specialists see extreme weather and misinformation as most likely to trigger a global crisis in the next couple of years, according to a recent World Economic Forum (WEF) survey. While extreme weather was identified as the bigger risk in 2024, misinformation and disinformation came second and were found to be the most severe global risk over the next two years.
This could pose a particular threat as billions of people head to the polls in the biggest election year in history. Here are a few other stories on my radar today: |
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Overview of the ice ring and the town of Davos ahead of the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF), Switzerland. REUTERS/Denis Balibouse/File Photo |
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Major economies from the United States to India and Mexico will hold elections this year, leaving industry and political leaders reliant on polls and forecasts to assess what the policy environment will look like by 2025. "The widespread use of misinformation and disinformation, and tools to disseminate it, may undermine the legitimacy of newly elected governments," the report warned.
"Resulting unrest could range from violent protests and hate crimes to civil confrontation and terrorism," added the report, which was prepared in partnership with Zurich Insurance Group and Marsh McLennan ahead of next week's annual WEF meeting.
Over a 10-year horizon, environmental risks including biodiversity loss and critical change to the Earth's systems topped the rankings, with misinformation, disinformation and adverse outcomes of artificial intelligence (AI) just behind. |
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The WEF report comes as the organization is set to begin its 54th annual gathering in the Swiss ski resort of Davos next week.
This year’s Davos conference will occur against its most complicated geopolitical backdrop ever ranging from wars in Gaza and Ukraine to rising debt and living costs, its president Borge Brende said.
Brende said much of this year's focus would be high level diplomatic talks on wars in the Middle East, Ukraine and Africa.
"With matters such as ongoing geopolitical tensions, the urgent need to address climate change, economic concerns and rapid technological advancements influencing policy and boardroom decisions, this summit will be pivotal," Deloitte Global Chair Anna Marks said in emailed comments. |
The cost of climate change |
Speaking of economics and climate change: earthquakes in Turkey and Syria, storms in the United States and other natural disasters caused an estimated $95 billion in insured losses in 2023, down from the previous year but still above the long-term average, Munich Re said. The quakes in Turkey and Syria were the most destructive events, causing 58,000 deaths, $50 billion in overall losses and $5.5 billion in losses covered by insurance.
But what stood out in 2023, Munich Re said, were not single big events but the numerous severe regional storms in the United States and Europe which are increasing as a result of climate change.
Additionally, the U.S. had more "billion-dollar" floods, fires and other climate disasters in 2023 than ever before, and the country's average temperature was the fifth-highest on record, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said.
Among the disasters was a wildfire on Maui, the nation's deadliest in more than a century, severe floods in California, two tornado outbreaks in central states, a winter storm in the northeast last February, and Hurricane Idalia in August.
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The delegation stand as judges at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) enter at The Hague, Netherlands. REUTERS/Thilo Schmuelgen |
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Gaza humanitarian crisis: The International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague, also known as the World Court, will hold sessions on Thursday and Friday in a case brought by South Africa in December accusing Israel of failing to uphold its obligations under the 1948 Genocide Convention.
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UK Post Office scandal: One of Britain's biggest miscarriages of justice, the wrongful conviction of hundreds of Post Office workers due to faulty software, has exploded into the public domain following a TV drama, sparking demands for justice. Click here for a brief explainer on the scandal and here for a report on Japanese tech giant Fujitsu’s role in it.
- The German government needs to provide clear guidelines for carbon capture and storage (CCS), a new alliance of unions, industry and environmental groups said, citing a need to tackle emissions that currently cannot be avoided.
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181 community activists were murdered in Colombia in 2023, the human rights ombudsman's office said, calling the situation a tragedy.
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Greenwashing claims: Climate activist group Investors for Paris Compliance lodged a complaint urging securities regulators to investigate major Canadian banks on their climate-related claims and alleged misleading disclosures.
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Breakingviews: Russia’s President Vladimir Putin’s 2022 attack on Ukraine exposed the European Union’s heavy dependence on cheap gas imported from Russia, chiefly via pipelines. To address the imbalance, the bloc rushed to add facilities to import liquefied natural gas (LNG) by sea from friendlier nations. But with renewable power set to depress fossil fuel demand, some of the newly built infrastructure risks becoming redundant. Click here for the full commentary by Breakingviews’ Lisa Jucca.
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Octavio Sandoval, director of investments at U.S.-based private equity firm, Illumen Capital, shares his thoughts on climate justice and inequality: “Climate change is a threat to human well-being and planetary health. “As we think creatively for solutions in this crisis, we must think about intersectionality.
“The fight for climate justice cannot succeed without the inclusion of people of color.
“From healthy food access to pollution to clean water to wildfires and hurricanes, low-income communities of color are most disproportionately affected.
“Racial biases continue to expose low-income communities of color to heightened environmental risks, a trend that will only continue as climate change exacerbates natural and man-made disasters.
“As such, climate relief equity must be woven intentionally to address the socioeconomic, sociocultural, and physical impacts of climate change.” |
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Last year was the planet's hottest on record by a substantial margin and likely the world's warmest in the last 100,000 years, the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) said. Scientists had widely expected the milestone, after climate records were repeatedly broken. Since June, every month has been the world's hottest on record compared with the corresponding month in previous years. |
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Jan. 15, Brussels, Belgium: European Union countries' climate and environment ministers gather in Brussels for informal talks on the EU's green policy agenda for the year and their plans to finish remaining policies before EU elections in June.
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Jan. 15, United States: The country marks Martin Luther King Jr. Day which honors the life and legacy of the civil rights leader. The celebration takes place on the Monday closest to his birthday.
- Jan. 16, Davos, Switzerland: International Energy's Executive Director Fatih Birol takes part in a panel discussion on "COP28 and the Road Ahead" at the World Economic Forum held in Davos.
- Jan. 17, London, Great Britain: British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's legislation to block further court challenges to the government's plan to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda will be debated in parliament between January 16 and January 17.
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