The images of the five Conservative Party Prime Ministers since May 2010.

2024 elections

The UK, 14 years after Conservatives won power

UK election winners inherit huge challenges, from economy to health

The winners of Britain's election on Thursday - which looks set to end 14 years in power for the Conservative Party - will take on some of the biggest challenges faced by any new government since the end of World War Two.

The economy has struggled to grow, health and other services are under severe strain and there is little room in the public finances to fix them. The government is also lagging behind its targets for immigration and house-building.

Opinion polls give a large lead to Keir Starmer's opposition Labour Party over Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's Conservatives. The graphics below highlight some of the main tasks ahead for the next government.

Economy

Britain, like many other rich nations, has managed only sluggish economic growth for most of the period after the global financial crisis of 2008-09.

Growth in Britain since 2010 - when the Conservatives took power - has been stronger than in Germany, France or Italy. But the lead is marginal.

The graphic has two charts showing the GDP growth and per capita GDP growth of the G7 countries from 2008 with Britain highlighted.

Taking account of changing population numbers - which have risen sharply in Britain due to high immigration - growth since 2010 has been weaker than in Germany and lags far behind the United States.

Living standards are on course to suffer their first fall over the course of a parliament since the 1950s.

Sunak says the economy is turning a corner after COVID and the energy price surge. Starmer says Labour would deliver the strongest sustained growth among the Group of Seven nations.

Since the COVID pandemic, Britain's economy has been the second weakest in the G7.

The chart shows the GDP growth of G7 countries from Q4 2019 with Britain highlighted.

The photo shows UK PM Rishi Sunak and Labour Party leader Keir Starmer in a debate.
British opposition Labour Party leader Keir Starmer and British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak take part in BBC's Prime Ministerial Debate, in Nottingham, Britain, June 26, 2024. REUTERS/Phil Noble/Pool

Poverty

Poverty has continued to diminish but the pace of the improvement has slowed since 2010.

Absolute poverty - measuring people on incomes below 60% of the median - fell five times faster in the 13 years to the 2009/10 financial year than it has since then, the Institute for Fiscal Studies, a think tank, says.

The graphic has two charts. The chart on top shows the absolute poverty in Britain from 1996 to 2022. The dot plot at the bottom shows the measures of deprivation between 2019-20 and 2022-23.

Other gauges of hardship have worsened recently, showing the impact of high inflation on poorer households more clearly.

In 2019/20, 4% of working-age adults were unable to heat their homes adequately. Three years later, that share had risen to 11%, according to the IFS.

Immigration

Successive Conservative governments missed their targets to lower net migration, even after Britain left the European Union and scrapped freedom of movement for workers from the bloc.

More workers from EU countries are now leaving Britain than arriving, but the number of people coming from other countries - especially India and Nigeria - has increased sharply.

Net migration fell to 685,000 in 2023 from a record 764,000 in 2022 but is almost four times its level in 2019 when former Conservative leader Boris Johnson promised, before an election that year, to bring it down.

The column chart shows the net long term migration in the UK between 2012 and 2023.

Inactivity

One of the reasons immigration has risen so much is the shortage of workers.

Employers have struggled to fill vacancies since the pandemic as the number of people classed as having long-term sickness hit record highs and the number of students also grew.

Britain is the only country in the G7 where the inactivity rate - measuring working-age people who are neither employed nor seeking a job - is higher than before the coronavirus pandemic.

The line chart shows the labour market inactivity for workers aged 15-64 in G7 countries with the UK highlighted.

The Conservatives plan to tighten rules on long-term sickness welfare benefits. Labour says it will address the problem by investing more in Britain's health service.

Health

The health service is struggling. The number of people waiting for non-urgent treatment, which was already growing between 2010 and early 2020, surged after COVID struck and then hit almost 8 million in late 2023 in England alone, almost doubling from four years earlier.

The line chart shows the total people on the NHS wait list (in yellow), ideal number of people with wait time of <18 weeks (in dotted blue line), actual number of people with wait time of <18 weeks (in blue line).

The backlog has fallen slightly in recent months but the National Health Service is far behind a target to start treating almost all non-urgent patients within 18 weeks. It is also missing its target for treating emergency patients promptly.

The line chart shows the share of patients in accident and emergency wards with admittance in less than 4 hours for normal and serious injuries.

The photo shows a patient in the Accident and Emergency department at Milton Keynes University Hospital in Milton Keynes.
A hospital porter pushes a patient through the Accident and Emergency department at Milton Keynes University Hospital in Milton Keynes, central England, Britain, May 23, 2018. REUTERS/Hannah McKay

Since 2010, health spending adjusted for inflation has grown more slowly than the average increases seen since the 1950s at a time when the population is growing and ageing.

The horizontal bar chart shows the annual real growth rate in health expenditure by parliament session. Conservative sessions are coloured blue and Labour sessions in yellow.

Home-building

Another promise that the Conservatives look set to miss is to increase construction of new homes after running into opposition to their plans to make it easier to build.

In the 12 months to the end of March 2023, just over 234,000 new homes were built in England and the figure has been persistently below the 300,000 target set for the mid-2020s.

Housing in Britain offers the worst value for money of any comparable economy, the Resolution Foundation think-tank says.

The chart shows the construction of new homes in the UK between 2001-02 and 2022-23. The Conservative party's annual target as per 2019 manifesto is highlighted.

The photo shows buildings in London.
Buildings in the City of London are seen alongside Victorian residential housing in South London, Britain, August 1, 2023. REUTERS/ Susannah Ireland

Productivity and investment

Key to the next government's chances of addressing many of Britain's most pressing challenges will be its ability to speed up economic growth which would put more money in the pockets of households and in the public coffers.

The graphic has three bar charts showing output per hour relative to the UK in UK’s regions in 1998, 2010 and 2022. Positive output is coloured in blue while negative in yellow.

To do that, an improvement in weak productivity will be needed. London and southeast England are the only regions in the UK where output per hour is above the national average, although the capital saw its lead narrow after the pandemic, possibly reflecting the impact of increased home-working.

The line chart shows gross fixed capital formation minus government gross fixed capital formation in US, France, UK and Germany with UK highlighted.

More private-sector investment is needed but companies have been wary about investing since 2016, the year of the Brexit referendum which triggered years of political instability.

Sources

Office for National Statistics, UK; London Stock Exchange Group; The Institute for Fiscal Studies; The King’s Fund; Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development; Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities

Additional reporting by

David Milliken and Andy Bruce

Additional development work by

Sudev Kiyada

Edited by

Anand Katakam and Ros Russell