Sea drones and the counteroffensive in Crimea

On Thursday, Russia reported its forces had repelled a Ukrainian drone attack on its warships in the Black Sea. The attack comes days after Ukrainian forces targeted the Crimean Bridge and a number of other unspecified targets on the Crimean peninsula in a flurry of rocket and drone attacks, according to Russia's Defence Ministry.

The reports highlight Ukraine’s counteroffensive in Crimea, which is being mostly waged through drone and long-range missile strikes.

In the Black Sea, Ukraine has opened a new era of naval warfare by employing suicide sea drones — drones armed with explosives designed to ram into targets and detonate.

“Ukraine has employed explosive uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) as formidable weapons against Russian fleets and even infrastructure”, said Scott Savitz, a senior analyst of the research organisation RAND Corporation.

According to Savitz's analysis, the ability of seafaring drones to carry large explosive payloads and strike at the waterline of ships makes them more dangerous than aerial weapons like missiles and bombs. The drones’ relatively low cost also allows Ukraine to stage attacks with large numbers, which are difficult to detect by Russian warships despite their scale.

In 2022, President Zelenskiy launched a fundraising campaign to build a fleet of naval drones to protect Ukrainian cities against Russian missile strikes launched from ships in the Black Sea.

The attack on Sevastopol harbour

According to Moscow, on Oct. 29, 2022, Ukraine used naval drones to attack Russian warships in the port of Sevastopol, home of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. The attack did not sink any ships, but it compelled Moscow to build up defences in Crimean ports and discouraged them from sailing warships beyond the protection of the port’s defences.

Investment in security and camouflage

These repeated attacks using naval drones have forced Russia to build up the security at the entrance to the military port of Sevastopol and around its warships based there. Measures include the addition of nets, pontoons and barriers, as well as the deployment of dolphins trained to detect enemy divers.

According to H. I. Sutton, an independent defence analyst, Russia is also attempting to camouflage its warships by painting the bow and stern in dark colours. This technique — which hearkens back to World War One “dazzle” camouflage, designed to disguise a ship’s heading and speed at sea — aims to confuse modern operators of suicide drones and satellites and prevent them from easily identifying important ships. According to Sutton, all these measures demonstrate that “the Russian Navy takes the maritime drone threat seriously.”

Crimea counteroffensive strategy

While he's been reticent about Ukraine's goals for their ongoing counteroffensive, president Volodymyr Zelenskiy has said that Ukraine's forces will not rest until Crimea is brought back under Ukrainian control.

Moscow has made clear that Crimea must be held at all costs.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has made several visits to the peninsula throughout the war to underscore his claim that Crimea is Russian soil. (After the last major attack on the Crimean Bridge, he drove across it in a Mercedes to prove it safe.) Former president and security council deputy chair Dmitry Medvedev has said that Russia could use nuclear weapons to defend the peninsula if Ukraine or NATO threatened to wrest it out of Russian hands.

Crimea houses the main base for Russia’s Black Sea Fleet at Sevastopol and supply lines for Russian forces occupying southern areas in mainland Ukraine. Kyiv could be seeking to cut off Russian forces in Crimea and make Moscow’s occupation untenable.

The Crimean Peninsula is connected to Russian-occupied southern Ukraine through just three vulnerable main roads that pass through swampy areas. The Crimean Bridge is the only link directly to Russia. The Russian army's main advantage lies in its naval strength, but Ukraine has discovered a way to block it.

Water in Crimea

Crimea has historically relied on the North Crimean Canal, flowing in from the Ukrainian mainland, for up to 85% of the water it needs for crop irrigation, industry and drinking water. But that canal, like irrigation canals across a wide swathe of southern Ukraine, was fed from the reservoir above the Nova Kahkhovka dam, which was destroyed in June.

Ukraine and Russia blame the other for destroying the dam, which inundated territory on both sides of the river that divides their forces. The Russian-backed head of Crimea warned the peninsula could face a potentially serious threat to Crimea’s water supply in time.

Ukraine had earlier blocked the canal after Russia's 2014 illegal annexation of Crimea, which led to severe water shortages. Before the war, Russian President Vladimir Putin held frequent meetings on Crimea's water problems, trying to devise plans — from drilling wells to building desalination plants — that would allow the peninsula to become fully autonomous when it came to water.

Life in occupied Crimea

According to Yevheniia Horiunova, Associate Professor of V.I. Vernadsky Taurida National University in Kyiv, daily life in Crimea has changed dramatically since Russian occupation. The overall population of the peninsula has decreased by 25-28%, the birth rate has fallen by 24%, average earnings have declined and more than 40% of companies in Crimea are unprofitable.

Russia touts significant investments made in the area, but with much of the money going to signature infrastructure projects like the Crimean Bridge and the rest to sustain Russian military forces in the peninsula, living standards for locals fall well below the Russian average.

Tourism once accounted for about a quarter of Crimea’s economy, but the downturn since Russia began its war against Ukraine has hurt many of the region’s small businesses, with many relying on direct government support schemes.