The Post-Pandemic Workforce

The pandemic sparked what seemed a massive reshuffling of who does what in the American workforce. Keeping track of that shifting landscape falls to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which every year details how many people do different types of jobs.

The latest data from the BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics program was released in April, using surveys from 671,552 businesses to estimate how many people were employed in more than 800 detailed occupations and the wages they earned. The answers reflect an economy adapting to life after a global health crisis.

With many in-person services limited before the arrival of vaccines in 2021, more groceries, meals and merchandise were delivered by cars and trucks. Transportation jobs boomed.

Work from home, an expanding logistics industry, and changes in technology meant an increase in managerial jobs and a drop in office and administrative support. Jobs in personal care and some other services dropped, possibly reflecting the higher risks and stress associated with that sort of work during the pandemic.

The number of jobs in each occupation is one way of thinking about what changed. The composition of the workforce - the percent share of each occupation among all jobs – is another.

In many cases - the drift towards transportation and health jobs and away from office staff, for example - the largest changes occurred from 2016 to 2019 and may have helped the U.S. manage through the pandemic.

Overall, the U.S. became an economy where a larger share of people made their living managing, organizing, and moving things around rather than making things or providing services.

The pandemic impact on education, health care and food services has been well documented. Staffing shortages in nursing continue, and businesses related to food preparation and service are the one place where employment has not recovered to its pre-pandemic level. The U.S. logistics boom was well underway when the pandemic struck.

The Great Resignation. Quiet Quitting. The pandemic triggered a new language around work, particularly in the service industry, as people reexamined priorities and wage demands in light of the health and safety risks involved in interacting with a sometimes unruly public. Pandemic benefits helped people manage through layoffs and a brief recession. As they engaged again with work, it often took higher pay to secure their help.

At a very basic level, the distribution of jobs reflects what individuals, businesses, institutions and governments need, want and are willing to spend money on.

Some jobs have been small in number but growing fast, like solar panel installers and, notably in the wake of the pandemic, counselors and therapists. In a chaotic and unpredictable work environment with constantly changing rules of engagement, the ranks of human resource specialists ballooned as well. Some of the shifts, such as the decline in retail workers, may involve a long-term reallocation of labor. Others, such as the drop in flight attendants as of May 2022, may be a more short-term pandemic disruption.

Which of those trends last, which fade, and which new ones emerge will be important to U.S. policymakers at the Federal Reserve, in federal, state and local governments, and at educational institutions as they try to cultivate a labor force that matches what the economy demands.

With natural population growth slowing, immigration could play an important role in how labor demands are met. The impact of technology on the U.S. economy, now including the rising use of artificial intelligence, could also influence how many workers are needed across occupations in the future.