A year after Russian troops poured over the Ukrainian border and reached the gates of the capital Kyiv in a full-scale invasion Moscow hoped would bring swift victory, one of the most striking aspects of the war so far is that Ukraine has survived.

As the shock of the most deadly conflict in Europe since World War Two wears off, Ukrainians’ defiance is sometimes taken for granted.

But a combination of planning, courage, tactics, overseas military and financial assistance and Russia’s battlefield failings has meant that, far from capitulating within days as many had expected, Ukraine has kept the enemy at bay.

That said, Russia has stabilised positions in the east and south of Ukraine after suffering major setbacks late in 2022, and has begun to make incremental gains ahead of what Kyiv fears will be another big offensive.

Russian President Vladimir Putin seems determined to dig in, sanctions against Moscow have not yet had a devastating impact on the economy, and Russia's army still has resources to throw at the conflict.

For now, though, Russia has met its match in a smaller, more nimble adversary led by President Volodymyr Zelenskiy – the public face of Ukraine’s war and a rallying figure for his besieged people – and “iron general” Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, who leads the troops.

There is no sense of complacency in Kyiv. The United States estimates that up to 100,000 people have been killed or wounded on each side, and trench warfare in the east is attritional and deadly.

Russia has hit critical infrastructure, meaning no power or heating for millions of Ukrainians during winter. Missiles have struck civilian buildings, including in Dnipro where at least 44 people were killed when an apartment block was flattened last month.

“The situation has become tougher,” Zelenskiy said in a sombre evening video address in early February.

Ukraine expects Russia to step up its attacks, and is hurrying to get hold of heavy weaponry from abroad including tanks, plus more ammunition and longer-range missiles, to counter the threat.

Next on Zelenskiy’s wish list are fighter jets, with some allies expressing a willingness to supply them but his key partner, U.S. President Joe Biden, saying no.

Around 20 uniformed men crouch or lie prone in the middle of an empty flyover, aiming their guns at an offscreen target., image

Three uniformed men stand behind a barricade in front of Kyiv’s Independence Monument; a tall marble pillar topped with a figurine., image

Kyiv never fell

As long as the capital stood, the government survived.

In the early hours of Feb. 24, 2022, tens of thousands of Russian soldiers entered Ukraine. They made swift gains in the first days, including in the south around Kherson and northeast near Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second city.

Yet most attention focused on Kyiv, the capital, where Zelenskiy has remained for virtually the whole war. By seizing the city of three million people, and capturing or killing Zelenskiy, Russia’s hope appeared to be that Ukraine would quickly surrender.

Zoomed-in map of the Kyiv near the Ukraine-Belarus border highlighting key events in the region early on in the invasion. Russia captured the Chornobyl power plant on the first day of the invasion. By March 23, Russia’s advance had captured regions of Ukraine along the Belarus border but Ukraine’s forces had begun reclaiming territory near Kyiv. The two forces also battled for control of Hostomel Airport.

Inside Kyiv, troops from the Ukrainian National Guard took up defensive positions on bridges entering the city, anti-tank barricades were hastily set up along the roadways and residents were told to make Molotov cocktails as they awaited a Russian assault.

There was a clear sense of uncertainty, shock and fear in Kyiv. Was the capital going to be stormed? Would there be massive loss of life? How close were the Russians? Could Ukraine repel such a powerful foe?

Outside the city, Russian troops formed a massive convoy stretching about 64 km (40 miles) along highways to the north. It seemed an inevitable and likely overwhelming force was about to descend on Ukraine’s capital.

Muted black and white video panning over satellite images of a long line of Russian military tanks and trucks.

But seemingly against all odds, Moscow’s blitzkrieg strike stalled outside Kyiv.

Russian troops did reach the towns of Irpin and Bucha, just to the northwest of Kyiv, where Ukrainian investigators have gathered extensive evidence of what they say are war atrocities carried out on civilians. Moscow denies such accusations.

There was also fighting in and around Brovary, east of Kyiv. All three locations are now synonymous with brutal siege warfare in which apartment blocks and houses were levelled and local populations subjugated by force.

Bodies of civilians and soldiers littered roads and tracks, sometimes untouched for weeks. Burned out hulks of tanks and armoured vehicles were evidence of fierce clashes.

But despite the onslaught outside the city, Kyiv did not fall. Ukrainian forces were prepared and succeeded in disrupting supply lines, preventing troop carriers from landing, destroying Russian armoured vehicles and holding frontlines away.

Moscow realised it was in for a long fight.

Zelenskiy stands at a lectern with a Ukrainian flag in the background., image

Video of Zelenskiy waving plays on a large screen in a room with approximately 200 attendees., image

Zelenskiy, inspirational leader

Once an actor, now president, he became the face of Ukraine’s determined resistance.

The former television comic has had little to smile about in the last year.

Western officials estimate tens of thousands of soldiers and civilians have died, millions of people have fled and much of the country, particularly in the east, lies in ruins.

Through the mayhem Zelenskiy has been ever-present, giving nightly addresses to his people via iPhone, visiting areas devastated by fighting, appealing to global leaders for support and striving to ensure the world does not lose interest in Ukraine’s plight.

Zelenskiy looks on, surrounded by Ukrainian servicemen. At least two are armed and wear helmets, and Zelenskiy wears a bulletproof vest. Caption: Zelenskiy in Bucha, April 4, 2022. REUTERS/Marko Djurica
Screenshot of Zelenskiy’s selfie video, with Ukrainian officials in the background. Caption: Zelenskiy confirms he is still in Kyiv, Feb. 25, 2022. Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Handout via REUTERS
Johnson and Zelenskiy walk in public, with a couple of uniformed servicemen in the background. Johnson points towards the camera. Caption: British PM Johnson and Zelenskiy walk at Mykhailivska Square in Kyiv, June 17, 2022. Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Handout via REUTERS
Zelenskiy and Biden shake hands, seated in front of a fireplace in the Oval Office. Caption: Zelenskiy meets with President Biden at the White House in Washington, U.S., Dec. 21, 2022. REUTERS/Leah Millis

The 45-year-old, who wears khaki clothes to reflect his country’s war footing, was named Time magazine’s Person of the Year in 2022.

“Zelenskiy’s success as a wartime leader has relied on the fact that courage is contagious,” the magazine wrote in December.

Success has equally stemmed from his ability to convince the world that victory for Russia would be bad news for everyone else.

“If they devour us, the sun in your sky will get dimmer,” he told Time.

In the months after the invasion, his face was beamed via video link into parliaments. Trains ferried world leaders in and out of Kyiv to meet the president, where they vowed support and burnished their own image standing beside him.

Tens of billions of dollars’ worth of arms have poured into Ukraine, without which it may not have survived. Tens of billions more in financial aid have arrived, propping up an economy ravaged by war.

Zelenskiy’s entourage and Ukrainians more widely have noted marked changes. Gone are the impish charm and boyish looks. He sports a scruffy beard, the lines on his face are pronounced and his eyes have become more sunken.

A man in a military uniform pushes a shipping pallet with four containers, about as tall as himself., image

Close-up photo of a uniformed man holding a missile launcher – a dark green barrel about one metre long, with a shoulder strap attached., image

Western support

The EU, Britain and the United States provided support to Ukraine in the form of weapons, as well as sanctioning Russia.

The international community has raced to Ukraine’s aid since the invasion as the financial costs mount.

In 2022, Ukraine received about $32 billion in foreign aid to cover the budget deficit, and the United States alone had pledged more than $29 billion worth of security assistance as of the end of January.

Total bilateral commitments

Bar chart showing the total amount donated by Europe, the U.S. and other countries. European Union members and institutions made up more than 85% of the continent’s €60.22 billion contribution, followed by the United Kingdom and other European countries. The U.S. alone contributed €47.82 billion, and other countries committed €4.95 billion in aid.

That includes everything from ammunition to advanced air defence systems, and HIMARS rocket launcher systems that have been used to strike ammunition depots, Russian troops and logistical targets behind enemy lines.

Ukraine has also successfully lobbied for the supply of advanced tanks, although it takes time to get them to the battlefield and some experts question whether they will be sufficient to have a major impact on the war.

Weapon unit deliveries of top five donors by weapon category

Four bar charts showing the number of armoured vehicles, tanks, howitzers (155 mm) and MLRS (multiple launch rocket systems) donated by the top five countries in each category. The data is included in the tables that follow.

Armoured vehicles
Country Delivered units
United States 300
Germany 80
United Kingdom 120
Lithuania 89
Australia 88
Tanks
Country Delivered units
Poland 240
Czech Republic 40
Howitzers (155mm)
Country Delivered units
United States 108
Norway 22
France 18
Poland 18
Germany 14
Multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)
Country Delivered units
Czech Republic 20
United States 16
Germany 5
United Kingdom 3
Norway 3

Other Western countries have contributed to the military campaign, notably Britain, Germany and Poland, but their role is dwarfed by Washington’s contributions.

Total bilateral commitments by percentage of 2021 GDP

Map of Europe, colour-coded to show the countries whose commitments range from 0.1% to more than 1% of their GDP. The countries bordering Russia, Belarus and Ukraine (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland) contributed the highest shares of their GDP. Estonia’s €330 million commitment was 1.1% of its GDP.

According to Ukrainian officials, the country will need $38 billion this year to cover the budget deficit and an additional $17 billion for urgent repairs to energy infrastructure targeted by Russian missiles and drones, as well as de-mining.

How much more assistance it will need to fight the war will depend on battlefield dynamics, what hardware is available and political will among allies to get more deeply involved.

A broken and rusted tank, with trees in the background., image

Rows of approximately 100 graves, most marked with a Russian Orthodox cross and a colourful wreath., image

Offensives and counter-offensives

Tactical mishaps and worsening morale gave Kyiv an opportunity to strike back.

Western intelligence officials said Russia underestimated its enemy and overestimated its own military capabilities.

Ukraine’s army is far smaller than Russia’s, but appears to have anticipated the full-scale invasion. So while Russian forces made swift advances in the south and northeast, the key objective of seizing Kyiv failed.

Ukraine’s defence of Hostomel airport close to the city denied Russia a key air bridge to fly in troops and equipment.

Russia brought in thousands of armoured vehicles by road, leading to congestion and attacks by Ukraine that forced a giant column north of Kyiv to turn back.

In some areas where Russia advanced, Western officials and military experts said it failed to consolidate gains with proper defensive lines, making it easier for Ukrainian forces to take back large swathes of territory in autumn counter-offensives.

Northern counter-offensive

Three maps of Kharkiv, Donetsk and Luhansk regions showing increasing Ukrainian area of control and decreasing Russian area of control on Sep. 7, Sep. 11 and Oct. 4

Southern counter-offensive

Three maps of Kherson and Mykolaiv regions showing decreasing Russian area of control and increasing Ukrainian area of control on Sep. 29, Oct. 4 and Nov. 15

Arms and equipment depots and barracks have been vulnerable to rockets and missiles supplied to Ukraine by Western partners, notably U.S. HIMARS systems and soon-to-arrive munitions that will double their range to 94 miles.

At times during the war, Russia’s defence ministry has appeared at odds with the Wagner Group, a mercenary outfit run by Putin ally Yevgeny Prigozhin that has recruited thousands of fighters, including from prisons across Russia.

Wagner has claimed some of the country’s biggest battlefield victories to date, although Ukraine says it has done so at a high cost with thousands of fighters killed.

There are no accurate estimates as to the losses in the war, but they are heavy and already dwarf Soviet casualties during the 10-year conflict in Afghanistan.

Ukraine and Russia are now engaged in attritional warfare in the east, where small gains are claimed regularly by Moscow amid heavy fighting.

The intensity of the battles has increased in recent weeks, and Ukraine and Russia are expected to launch major spring offensives soon.

In the foreground, a young woman with a white dress, feathered wings and red paint on her arms clutches her heart and looks to the camera. In the background, people stand in a public area holding signs and flags, one of which says “World Help Us”., image

An older woman tightly hugs her young granddaughter. The two sit on a bed, with a radio and teddy bears nearby., image

Ukrainian civilians have endured

The will of the people of Ukraine continues to be that they remain free.

Despite months of relentless and devastating attacks, Ukrainian civilians remain steadfast in their resilience against Russia. In October 2022, polling data from the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology showed that 86% of Ukrainians still supported the idea of continued resistance against Russia.

Since the Kremlin launched its incursion, over 8 million Ukrainians have fled their homeland. The U.N. has recorded over 7,000 civilians killed and a further 11,500 injured. For those who remain, daily life has been crippled by power outages as Russian drones and missiles have targeted Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Hidden landmines threaten civilians from the landscape.

Homes, schools, and hospitals have been damaged and destroyed, and U.N.-appointed investigators are looking into whether Russia's attacks on critical infrastructure in Ukraine amount to war crimes.

Meanwhile, the U.N. has concluded that war crimes including rape, torture, executions and confinement of children were committed in Russian-occupied areas.

The Kremlin denies targeting civilians.

Still, the reports of attacks against civilians make a grim and consistent record over the last year, detailing the deadly living conditions Ukrainians now endure and outright atrocities that have left a trail of victims.

World leaders commend the Ukrainian people for their resilience. Behind their outward courage, the World Health Organization estimates that 10 million people, about one in every four Ukrainians, may suffer from mental health disorders related to the conflict.

A year into Russia’s invasion, there is no end in sight, and while so much of the weight of the war will be borne by those who remain in Ukraine, daily life continues. In cities away from the frontline, people still go about their own business between air raid alarms. Christmas markets opened. Restaurants have learned to cook and serve their guests despite power cuts.

Those who remain nearest the fighting carve out a far ruder existence to survive. Millions have reestablished their lives as refugees abroad.

But Ukraine survives while its people continue to defend it.

Muted video footage from a bustling Ukraine underground subway station during an air raid. A young couple embraces, a woman works on her laptop, someone plays with their dog and an artist sketches in their notebook. Caption: People packed in Kyiv’s underground metro during an air alert. REUTERS. Production: Yurii Kovalenko, Margaryta Chornokondratenko

Woman and little girl dressed in warm winter clothes embracing, the girl smiling. Caption: Halyna hugs her daughter, Arina, after her evacuation from frontline city of Bakhmut in Sloviansk. Jan. 31, 2023. REUTERS/Oleksandr Ratushniak
An elderly woman pushes a pram containing packages along the road next to several broken houses and barren trees. Caption: Anna, 78, transports food that volunteers have given her on her late son’s baby pram. Jan. 31, 2023. REUTERS/Nacho Doce
Two young women stand at the front of a group of people, several holding signs that say “save Mariupol” and other slogans in English and Ukrainian. Caption: Nicole and Vira, sisters who fled Mariupol, at a rally demanding a humanitarian corridor to evacuate Ukrainian military and civilians from the city. May 3, 2022. REUTERS/Gleb Garanich

Muted video footage from a restaurant, where diners are eating by candlelight and cell phone torchlight. Caption: Defiant diners eat by candlelight during nationwide electricity outages after Russian air strikes on power facilities. REUTERS. Production: Anna Dabrowska

Note

Areas showing Russia-occupied Ukraine are current as of Feb. 19, 2023.

Sources

Institute for the Study of War with American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project; Ukraine Support Tracker, Kiel Institute for the World Economy; Natural Earth; OpenStreetMap

Edited by

Jon McClure, Nick Macfie