War in Ukraine

Six months of the war in Ukraine

The toll of Russia’s invasion is high with no end to the fighting in sight

This week marks six months since Russian forces rolled across Ukraine’s borders in the largest military invasion in Europe since World War Two.

Since then, tens of thousands of people have been killed, millions have fled and cities have been reduced to rubble by Russia’s bombardment.

Moscow calls its campaign a “special military operation” to demilitarise Ukraine and protect Russian-speaking communities. Ukrainian president Volodymr Zelensky said Russia had “embarked on a path of evil.”

Map of Ukraine showing areas controlled by Russia as of August 22.

After Russian forces failed to overrun the country on three fronts, Moscow has claimed territorial gains in eastern Ukraine and created a land bridge between separatist regions in the Donbas and the Crimean peninsula it illegally annexed in 2014.

But Ukraine’s military, supported by weapons and supplies from Western allies, including at least $9.1 billion in security assistance from the United States, has claimed numerous victories and frustrated Moscow’s wider ambitions.

Early March

Initial campaign

Russia’s initial campaign aims to seize Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odesa, and other major Ukrainian cities to force a change of government in Ukraine.

Map of Ukraine showing areas controlled by Russia as of March 4. The map shows Russian progress in the North, East and Southern fronts in the early weeks of the invasion.

March

Russia fails at seizing Kyiv

After the first month of the invasion, Russia gives up on some of its most important goals withdrawing the plan to encircle and seize Kyiv.

Map of Ukraine showing areas controlled by Russia as of March 24. The map shows some more areas controlled by Russia in the East.

April

A new phase of the war

Russia redefines its goals. Moscow focuses on capturing the entirety of the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts and defending Russian positions in southern Ukraine against Ukrainian counterattacks.

Map of Ukraine showing areas controlled by Russia as of April 24. The map shows how Russian troops have withdrawn from the Kyiv area and the North of the country.

May

Withdraw from Kharkiv

In May, Russian forces withdraw from Kharkiv, abandoning efforts to encircle large Ukrainian formations in eastern Ukraine and focusing instead on smaller encirclements, especially in the Sieverodonetsk area.

Map of Ukraine showing areas controlled by Russia as of May 24. The map shows how Russia is focused mainly in the Southern and Eastern fronts.

June

Focus on Luhansk

In June, most Russian efforts focus on taking full control of the Luhansk oblast with heavy fighting along the banks of the Siverskyi Donets river.

Map of Ukraine showing areas controlled by Russia as of June 24. The map shows how Russia is focused mainly in the Southern and Eastern fronts.

July

Defined frontlines

In July, Ukrainian HIMARS missile strikes against Russian ammunition depots, logistics and command and control systems are likely degrading Russia’s artillery campaigns.

Map of Ukraine showing areas controlled by Russia as of July 24. The map shows how Russia is focused mainly in the Southern and Eastern fronts.

While Moscow's ground assault stalled, it has waged a devastating assault on Ukraine from the air.

Exclusive data provided to Reuters by Ukrainian officials showed there had been at least 3,654 missile strikes across the country between the start of the invasion and July 21.

Ukraine says those strikes have often targeted civilian infrastructure. Moscow denies that and has claimed, without providing evidence, that some attacks had been staged by Ukrainian forces.

Where Russian missiles have struck

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On Monday, the head of Ukraine's armed forces said almost 9,000 Ukrainian military personnel had been killed in the war. Russia has not said how many of its soldiers have been killed, though U.S. intelligence estimates that some 15,000 have been killed so far.

Photo of a charred Russian tank.
An image of the destroyed Antonov An-225 Mriya cargo plane at Hostomel airfield.
A blast is seen in the TV tower in Kyiv
Service members of the Ukrainian armed forces, who surrendered at the besieged Azovstal steel mill in Mariupol in the course of Ukraine-Russia conflict, sit in a bus upon their arrival under escort of the pro-Russian military.
Photo showing smoke and flame rising after a military strike on a compound of Sievierodonetsk's Azot Chemical Plant.

A charred Russian tank in the Sumy region, Ukraine, March 7, 2022. Irina Rybakova/Press service of the Ukrainian Ground Forces/Handout via REUTERS

An Antonov An-225 Mriya cargo plane, the world's biggest aircraft, destroyed by Russian troops at Hostomel airfield, in Kyiv region, Ukraine April 2, 2022. REUTERS/Mikhail Palinchak

A blast is seen in a Kyiv TV tower, March 1, 2022. REUTERS/Carlos Barria

Ukrainian armed forces, who surrendered at the besieged Azovstal steel mill in Mariupol upon their arrival under escort of the pro-Russian military in the settlement of Olenivka in the Donetsk region, May 20, 2022. REUTERS/Alexander Ermochenko

Smoke and flame rise after a military strike on a compound of Sievierodonetsk's Azot Chemical Plant, in Lysychansk, Luhansk region, Ukraine June 18, 2022. REUTERS/Oleksandr Ratushniak

Throughout the conflict, the toll on Ukrainian civilians has been severe.

According to the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR), at least 5,587 civilians have been killed and 7,890 injured since the start of the invasion, though OHCHR believes the actual figures are likely much higher.

Most of those killed or injured were the victims of explosive weapons such as artillery, missile and air strikes.

The high number of civilian casualties includes some Ukraine and Western allies allege were the victims of war crimes, a claim Moscow denies.

Human Rights Watch investigator Richard Weir said: “What we’ve seen here is pretty strong indications that a number of willful killings or murders took place,” referring to bodies found with their hands tied after Russian forces retreated from towns on the outskirts of Kyiv in early April.

Mariupol, a once-prosperous southern port, was destroyed by Russian forces over three months of what the Red Cross called “hell.” Ukraine says tens of thousands of civilians died, with food, water and medical supplies cut and continuous bombing trapped many in basements. The United Nations says the toll is unknown.

An aerial view shows residential buildings that were damaged during Ukraine-Russia conflict in the southern port city of Mariupol.
Residential buildings that were damaged during Ukraine-Russia conflict in Mariupol, Ukraine April 3, 2022. Picture taken with a drone. REUTERS/Pavel Klimov

The early stages of the conflict saw a mass exodus from Ukraine.

According to UNHCR, there have been 11,150,639 border crossings out of the country since the invasion began as of Aug. 16.

Daily movements out of and into Ukraine

At least 6,657,918 refugees have fled from Ukraine to Europe, according to UNHCR.

While the majority of refugees initially fled to neighbouring countries, many have since moved on to other parts of Europe.

Around two-thirds of refugees from Ukraine expect to stay in their host countries until hostilities subside and the security situation improves, a survey by UNHCR found.

Over 6.6 million people remain internally displaced in Ukraine, according to UNHCR.

Ukrainian refugees across Europe
Photo of Irpin residents looking for cover as they flee.
Photo of people who fled Mariupol and Melitopol.
Natalia Maznichenko holds a photo of her husband Vasyl Maznichenko during his funeral at the cemetery in Bucha.
People walk their bikes across the street as smoke rises above a plant of Azovstal Iron and Steel Works in Mariupol.
An interior view shows a local school damaged by shelling in the village of Kukhari.

Irpin residents flee after heavy shelling on the only escape route used by locals, while Russian troops advance towards Kyiv, March 6, 2022. REUTERS/Carlos Barria

People who fled Mariupol and Melitopol wait inside an evacuee bus in Zaporizhzhian, April 1, 2022. REUTERS/stringer

Natalia Maznichenko mourns her husband Vasyl Maznichenko during his funeral at the cemetery in Bucha, April 21, 2022. REUTERS/Zohra Bensemra

Smoke rises above a plant of Azovstal Iron and Steel Works in Mariupol, May 2, 2022. REUTERS/Alexander Ermochenko

A local school in the village of Kukhar damaged by shelling. March 30, 2022. REUTERS/Serhii Nuzhnenko

The war in Ukraine has also contributed to a global food crisis.

The halt in Ukrainian exports following the outbreak of the conflict pushed the Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) food price index, which tracks international prices of the most globally traded food commodities, to its highest point in March since records began in 1990.

Russia’s blockade of Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea stranded an estimated 22 million tonnes of grain in Ukraine as of May.

Moscow has denied responsibility for the food crisis, blaming Western sanctions for slowing its own exports and Ukraine for mining the approaches to its ports.

An agreement, brokered by the United Nations along with Turkey, was reached last month to unblock exports from three Ukrainian ports amid fears that the loss of Ukrainian grain supplies would lead to severe food shortages and even outbreaks of famine in parts of the world.

A map of shipping in the Black Sea.

Six months in, there is still no end in sight for the war in Ukraine.

Both sides are entrenched along the eastern front, though counter-attacks have reached deeper into Russian-occupied territories, including Crimea.

Ukraine issued dire warnings about a frontline nuclear power station, the Zaporizhzhia complex, where it said it believed Moscow was planning a "large-scale provocation" as justification to decouple the plant from the Ukrainian power grid and connect it to Russia's.

Russian President Vladimir Putin accused Ukraine of shelling the complex, risking a nuclear catastrophe.

Besides the human losses, Ukraine has lost control of around 22% of its land to Russia since the 2014 annexation of Crimea, according to Reuters calculations and its economy will contract by 45% in 2022, the World Bank and International Monetary Fund have estimated.

Western sanctions against Russia have been the biggest shock to the country’s economy since the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union. It has been excluded from Western financial markets, most of its oligarchs are under sanctions, and it is experiencing problems acquiring some items such as microchips.

The invasion and Western sanctions on Russia led to steep rises in the prices of fertiliser, wheat, metals and energy, feeding into an inflationary wave that is crashing through the global economy.

By

Dea Bankova, Samuel Granados, Michael Ovaska & Prasanta Kumar Dutta

Sources

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) Operational Data Portal, Ukraine Refugee Situation, The United Nations Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) Ukraine: civilian casualty update 22 August 2022, Institute for the Study of War and https://www.criticalthreats.org/, Natural Earth

Edited by

Jon McClure, Grant McCool